Monthly Outlook Dec-24
Conditions for both European gas and power markets stabilization are unlikely to be met by 2025. As the end of Russian gas approaches, timely development of liquefaction capacity will be key for the long-awaited price normalization from 2026.
Monthly Outlook Nov-24
Global gas market tensions will remain high in 2025, impacting electricity prices despite favorable renewable production. Exit tariffs on Italian borders limit the potential for gas exports to Central and Eastern European countries.
Monthly Outlook Oct-24
Escalating geopolitical tensions prevent gas and power prices from moving lower despite weak fundamentals. The timely regasification capacity development in Europe is crucial to address the anticipated halt of Russian flows via Ukraine in 2025.
Emissioni di metano: l’UE lancia la sfida
Il regolamento europeo sulle emissioni di metano stimolerà produzione e importazione di gas più sostenibile. Un quadro regolatorio incompleto, tempistiche serrate e misurazioni puntuali saranno le sfide per la filiera dei combustibili fossili.
Monthly Outlook Aug-24
Unplanned LNG outages and geopolitical uncertainties limit the downside for gas and power prices in the short term. The timely commissioning of new liquefaction capacity is crucial for maintaining market stability, particularly during winters.
Monthly Outlook Jul-24
Before new US and Qatar plants come online, the demand-supply margin is not enough to dismiss the risk of renewed global LNG tensions. Despite record RES, ample imports, and subdued demand, a rebound in gas and power prices cannot be ruled out.
Monthly Outlook Jun-24
Despite a weakening of the electricity market fundamentals, chances for prices to move lower are limited, in wake of logistic costs highly uncertain dynamics and risks for the gas market relating to the global LNG demand-supply close margins.
Monthly Outlook May-24
Gas market balance relies on low European demand, as the recovery of Asian LNG demand and concerns over LNG supply contribute to price volatility. High renewables production and increased imports weigh on the competitive demand for CCGTs.
Monthly Outlook Apr-24
Fundamentals suggest stable gas and power markets in 2024. However, geopolitical issues and LNG supply disruptions pose risks that could spike volatility. Low competitive demand for CCGT gas power plants keeps pressure on the CSS.
LNG and Natural Gas Market Outlook Mar 2024 – Anno IX n. 27
The level of competition in LNG supplies, European gas reserves, and demand does not support a substantial price rebound until the next winter. The need for Norwegian supplies to offset OLT limits chances for the PSV-TTF spread narrowing.