Short-term perspective for Italy have relaxed, although tensions on energy market are still possible given the fragile equilibrium on gas market: intensified competitive dynamics between Europe and Asia could drive electricity prices.
In the short-term market outlook in Italy remains uncertain, depending on the fragile equilibrium on gas market, affecting electricity market stability. Solar capacity installation is expected to guide the transition during the twenties.
Combination of gas market temporary relaxation with subdued power demand is the key determinant for the electricity prices easing expected for 2023-2024. RES gain share rapidly as the 2022 momentum is expected to enhance over the coming years.
Demand is still seen as the key factor in 2023. French nuclear capacity availability and hydro reservoirs equilibrium must also be kept under scrutiny, being essential to keep the energy market on a path towards normalization.
The European Union and each single nation reaction to the disruption generated from the deterioration of both diplomatic and commercial relations with Russia are seen as key determinants of the future equilibrium of the energy markets.
Energy market turmoil is likely to extend into the coming winter season and perspectives for the Italian power market are tough. Electricity long-term forecasts incorporate the diverse geopolitical and economic hypothesis.
The invasion of Ukraine reverberates on the energy market. A review of the premises on which long-term scenarios are based is consequently needed. Gas and electricity market forecasts now take into account the diverse hypothesis of war duration.