Monthly Outlook Nov-24
Global gas market tensions will remain high in 2025, impacting electricity prices despite favorable renewable production. Exit tariffs on Italian borders limit the potential for gas exports to Central and Eastern European countries.
by Monthly Outlook Oct-24
Escalating geopolitical tensions prevent gas and power prices from moving lower despite weak fundamentals. The timely regasification capacity development in Europe is crucial to address the anticipated halt of Russian flows via Ukraine in 2025.
Monthly Outlook Aug-24
Unplanned LNG outages and geopolitical uncertainties limit the downside for gas and power prices in the short term. The timely commissioning of new liquefaction capacity is crucial for maintaining market stability, particularly during winters.
Monthly Outlook Jul-24
Before new US and Qatar plants come online, the demand-supply margin is not enough to dismiss the risk of renewed global LNG tensions. Despite record RES, ample imports, and subdued demand, a rebound in gas and power prices cannot be ruled out.
Monthly Outlook Jun-24
Despite a weakening of the electricity market fundamentals, chances for prices to move lower are limited, in wake of logistic costs highly uncertain dynamics and risks for the gas market relating to the global LNG demand-supply close margins.
Monthly Outlook May-24
Gas market balance relies on low European demand, as the recovery of Asian LNG demand and concerns over LNG supply contribute to price volatility. High renewables production and increased imports weigh on the competitive demand for CCGTs.
Monthly Outlook Apr-24
Fundamentals suggest stable gas and power markets in 2024. However, geopolitical issues and LNG supply disruptions pose risks that could spike volatility. Low competitive demand for CCGT gas power plants keeps pressure on the CSS.
Italian Power Market Outlook Apr 2024 – Anno IX n. 27
The PUN is expected to stabilize, with demand not reaching pre-pandemic levels until 2026, renewables accelerating further and imports increasing. Low CCT averages contribute to reducing the impact of the PUN overcome in the short term.
Gas and Power Market Outlook Jan 2024 – Anno IX n. 26
An expected recovery of gas demand in 2024 is seen as supporting gas and power prices. The deployment of renewable energy capacity would be key to ease tensions potentially arising in summer.
Italian Power Market Outlook Nov 2023 – Anno VIII n. 25
Power prices follow a normalization path, amid a gradual realignment of gas market fundamentals towards more balanced conditions, a bearish view on demand and renewables accelerating, supported by an uptake of the new capacity additions.